Hi everyone! I’ve been extra busy lately helping travelers lock in their spring break and holiday trips. Recently, however, there’s been an additional wrinkle affecting airfare prices: the impact of the U.S. conflict with Iran on the airline industry.

Several clients have reached out over the past couple of weeks experiencing serious sticker shock when pricing their holiday flights. In many cases, average ticket prices have risen significantly just in the last couple of weeks.

The increases are particularly noticeable on trans-Atlantic routes and last-minute bookings or ticket changes. One of the biggest drivers behind the spike is the rising cost of jet fuel, which is a major factor in airline operating expenses.

According to recent reporting in the Wall Street Journal, fares on some domestic tickets have increased between 15% and 57%, while some long-haul routes have doubled in price compared to just a week earlier.

There also appears to be a bit of a “booking frenzy” underway. Some travelers are making speculative reservations in case prices continue to rise, which is putting additional pressure on already limited inventory.

Meanwhile, airline stocks have dropped between 10% and 20% since the conflict began, as investors anticipate that some travelers may cancel or delay their summer holiday trips to Europe.

Another trend I’m seeing: because many airlines have shifted toward dynamic award pricing, award availability with points is tighter than usual - especially for short-notice travel.

Interestingly, there is panic ticket booking going on. Last Tuesday, United Airlines reported its highest revenue booking day ever.

I don’t have a crystal ball for what the next six months will bring, but my current recommendation is simple: If you know your travel dates, consider locking in your flights now.

To protect yourself, you can:

• Book refundable fares
• Use points that can easily be redeposited
• Take advantage of airlines with low change or cancellation fees

For example, I have a big trip planned to Asia in April. I decided to go ahead and book my flights now since the cancellation fee on the points I used is only $20 per ticket. I did spend more points than I normally would, but I preferred the peace of mind over risking even higher prices later.

As always, if you’re planning travel and want help navigating these price swings, feel free to reach out. I’m happy to help find the best strategy for your trip.